Conflict Expectations
Okay, so I was trying to crunch numbers and understand how to populate my wagons for conflicts. Especially I have two scholar accounts with regular foil cards only. So I was thinking if I should put wagons there or not. The answer is NO. More precisely, if you have wagons (free) from previous conflict, or free wagons that you have gotten from pack purchase, it is okay to populate them. But DON'T buy wagons from the market spending $6. It will be a very high chance that you will lose money.
Here's how :)
| Rarity | Regular | Gold | Black | Max Reg Wagon | Max Gold Wagon | Max Black Wagon | 30-day Total points Reg | No. of Guaranteed Cards RF | 30-day Total points Gold | No. of Guaranteed Cards GF | 30-day Total points Black | No. of Guaranteed Cards BF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 2,100 | 4,988 | 24,937 | 10,500 | 24,938 | 124,685 | 7,560,000 | 0.095 | 17,955,000 | 0.228 | 9,773,200 | 1.122 |
| Rare | 2,415 | 11,550 | 57,750 | 12,075 | 57,750 | 288,750 | 8,694,000 | 0.109 | 41,580,000 | 0.522 | 07,900,000 | 2.599 |
| Epic | 4,830 | 26,250 | 131,250 | 24,150 | 131,250 | 656,250 | 17,388,000 | 0.217 | 94,500,000 | 1.184 | 72,500,000 | 5.906 |
| Legendary | 5,775 | 52,500 | 262,500 | 28,875 | 262,500 | 1,312,500 | 20,790,000 | 0.260 | 189,000,000 | 2.369 | 45,000,000 | 11.813 |
I can shorten the important bit of the table but just discussing the expected number of guaranteed airdrops card into the following table:
| Rarity | No. of Guaranteed Cards RF | No. of Guaranteed Cards GF | No. of Guaranteed Cards BF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 0.09 | 0.22 | 1.12 |
| Rare | 0.11 | 0.52 | 2.60 |
| Epic | 0.22 | 1.18 | 5.91 |
| Legendary | 0.26 | 2.36 | 11.81 |
Added later: The same plot in linear scale
The way to read this chart is as follows:
- If you fill your wagons with 5 Max Gold Foil Epic CA cards, you are guaranteed to get 1 airdrop card in 30 days of the first conflict (1.12 to be precise, but cards are integers)
- If you fill your wagons with 5 Max Gold Foil Legendary CA cards, you are guaranteed to get 2 airdrop cards in 30 days of the first conflict (2.36 to be precise)
- Anything less than a GFE, has less than a full chance of getting a card
Current Price of CA Legendary Card
Here is the current market prices of CA legendary cards:
The price varies between $5.9 to $15.8. It is impossible to know the price of the first conflict airdrop. However, if one buys a wagon kit from the market, that is currently priced at $6. Plus you might want to consider the cost of Midnight and Alchemy potions, which will add to the net cost. If the airdrop card is priced at the low end of the current market prices, it is better to get the card from the market.
Comments (9)
Luckily I have a wagons from the last conflicts and will probably only need to replace 1/2 for each airdrop for CA - just need to add a few points before we start to get 1 guaranteed
Yes, that works.
If people are buying wagons, then that is the problem
Think the cost of midnight potions may be something I need to look at now we require 50 per card, probably will be worth it for the lottery ticket...
Wagons in splinterlands... I must be far behind on what is going on.
Just been logging in to manage my land.
did you buy any Rebellions packs or Conclave Arcana packs? If you did, you might have wagons already and if you fill them with cards, you will get airdrop cards
The last packs I bought were chaos legion. So probably out of luck for that airdrop.
Yeah, in that case you are a bit behind :)
https://www.reddit.com/r/Splinterlands/comments/1lxsfj1/how_many_cards/ This post has been shared on Reddit by @bhattg through the HivePosh initiative.
Excellent post again.. when you want to buy for profit indeed don't just do that unless you have the CA/RB cards to back that up..
Still if you want to buy for the fun to participate and see if you are lucky, is still valid, its a game 😍. You might have a CA playing deck that you want give a extra "small" chance for a airdrop, might be fun or buy the cards later of the market 💪.
I see every chance as a chance but still nice to make sure you get at least 1, if I had to buy my 26 wagons I would only be using my free ones for the first conflict
Same for me also glad with the wagons i got already. But also paid for back in the day 🤣
Yes agree.
But you have seen the complaints at discord I am sure. So I was trying to put exact numbers and visuals so that it can help people and they can't say "Oh! I didn't know!"
They definitely still do! 🤣
Really interesting data—I've been getting a few DMs myself and have been pointing people to this blog. 💪
Okay! Time to pull out those Black Foils. It will take me hours. I don't want to do that in the last min.
Done! Had to buy some new cards for land with almost no DEC left 🤣.
Note: also disabled them for survival (not sure if they can be on wagon at the same time)
Related question, slight tangent.
Can anyone vouch for the "usefulness" of the autofill feature for wagons ?, does it optimally fill my wagons or should I do this manually for better results ?
Also, does it account for Reb cards correctly ?
Wondering if anyone can speak from experience
It does it from highest PP to lowest PP. yes, it does consider the RB cards
Watch out for the bully, if you disagree with him on discord he will DV all your hive posts.
Thanks for this insight!
It would be really nice a plot of cost (wagon + cards) per guaranteed card by rarity and type
So, again I did not check the available posts before writing. It could've saved me a lot of time. Anyway, I went a little deeper into the calculations regarding all that, and built a little Excel sheet with a calculator to simulate wagons:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13rQf3uxVdy0Me4nHj_fERYgY_F088rUq4LUE80sScuw/edit?usp=sharing
Works nicely, takes into account all the current costs of cards. Not wagons, though.